IvyArcIvyArc
6

Nobel

3yo Gelding · 10-0

Moulins · Prix Chanducoq Stakes · 1m 3f 204y

#1

Rank

Odds

12/5

Win Prob

97%

Place Prob

74%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Saint-Malo 11/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 1m6f146y Std 011/08C?C5 @ Moulins 28/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 1m3f204y Sft 14028/08C56 @ Vichy 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m2f151y Std 012/096projClass-projected finish: 1st of 2
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Vichy61st3rd−2
2026-08-28Moulins?4th4th0
2026-08-11Saint-Malo?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0828/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength50%

Delivery trend -29.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/08/20265th50/10%67%+0.67
28/08/20264th4/179%67%-0.12
12/09/20261st13/891%100%+0.09