IvyArcIvyArc
4

Marinello

4yo Gelding · 10-7

Moulins · Prix David Du Berlais Chase · 2m 2f 86y

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Nantes 15/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m3f204y Sft 13415/10C53 @ Pau 16/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 2m1f87y Hvy 14716/0133 @ Pau 03/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 2m1f87y Hvy 1503/023C4 @ Auteuil 23/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 2m1f196y Hvy 14223/02C4projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-02-23Auteuil?6th7th−1
2026-02-03Pau31st1st0
2026-01-16Pau34th4th0
2025-12-24Pau?0
2025-10-15Nantes?6th8th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1016/013/0223/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/10/20256th17/255%17%-0.39
16/01/20264th40/10%73%+0.73
03/02/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
23/02/20266th10/147%55%+0.07