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13

War Chest

2yo Colt · 9-7

Newbury · Kennet Valley Syndicates Nick Robinson EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promising type. 66/1 and hooded, third of 7 in novice at Ascot (6f, good) on debut 14 days ago, nearest at the finish. Open to progress.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ascot 04/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS4/092
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Ascot23rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-6 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/09/20263rd66/10%67%+0.67