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2

Sorrengail

2yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 89

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Full Of Surprises British EBF Fillies' Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) (Str) · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Raced at 6f on good to firm, building on debut to win Ascot novice in July. Improved again chasing home a smart prospect in 6f conditions event here last month. Fitted with a hood now stepping up to 7f. Sets a good standard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 6f GF 12810/0733 @ Ascot 24/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f GF 12824/0732 @ Newbury 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 6f Goo 13214/082projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Newbury22nd2nd0
2026-07-24Ascot31st2nd−1
2026-07-10Newmarket34th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0724/0714/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength53%

Delivery trend -22.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/07/20264th11/142%70%+0.28
24/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
14/08/20262nd11/893%75%-0.18