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13

First Mate

2yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 69

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Nursery (Str) · 7f

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#10

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed promise on 2 of his 3 qualifying runs and appeals as a potential improver in nurseries, particularly now stepping back up in trip. Has been gelded and also wears first-time blinkers.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 18/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 6f GF 12818/0743 @ Ffos Las 04/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 7f80y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS4/0834 @ Salisbury 12/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f Goo 13312/084projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Salisbury44th4th0
2026-08-04Ffos Las37th6th+1
2026-07-18Newbury47th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/074/0812/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 11-13 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -17.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/07/20267th18/15%33%+0.28
04/08/20267th14/126%0%-0.26
12/08/20264th7/163%57%-0.06