11
Isabella De Vega
2yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 71
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Nursery (Str) · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength61%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Newbury | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Thirsk | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -60.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |