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4

Jumeirah Storm

2yo Colt · 9-6 · OR 82

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Nursery (Str) · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

59%

Place Prob

32%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Split a pair of next-time-out winners when promising fourth at Salisbury before digging deep to land 6f Doncaster novice (good to firm) in July. Cheekpieces on first time, creditable sixth of 18 in nursery at York (6f, good) 30 days ago, rallying as if this step up to 7f will suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 6f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS14/0634 @ Doncaster 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 6f2y GF 1333/0744 @ Doncaster 23/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 81 · 6f111y GF 132 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 81 par23/074OR 812 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 84 par19/082OR 84projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19York26th4th+2
2026-07-23Doncaster42nd2nd0
2026-07-03Doncaster41st1st0
2026-06-14Salisbury34th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/063/0723/0719/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength68%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/06/20264th15/261%70%+0.09
03/07/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
23/07/20262nd6/492%75%-0.17
19/08/20266th12/137%71%+0.34