10
Magi Melchior
2yo Colt · 8-13 · OR 75
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Nursery (Str) · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Newbury | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-07-13 | Windsor | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Newbury | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 73% | -0.14 |
| 01/08/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |