My A'ali Baba
2yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 80
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Nursery (Str) · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | York | 2 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-08-12 | Salisbury | 1 | 5th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-30 | Goodwood | 2 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-07-03 | Sandown | 2 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Goodwood | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Chepstow | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 30/07/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 41% | +0.41 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 20/08/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |