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9

Silver Sovereign

2yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 77

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Nursery (Str) · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promising second on 6f Salisbury debut and built on that to go one place better over 7f at Haydock (good to firm) 17 days later. There's more improvement in her for a stable which is no stranger to success in this nursery.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 1.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 21/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 6f Goo 12821/0743 @ Haydock 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f212y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS7/083projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-07Haydock31st0th+1
2026-07-21Salisbury42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/077/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength86%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/07/20262nd13/266%75%+0.09
07/08/20261st7/491%100%+0.09