Sonny Parvenue
2yo Colt · 9-9 · OR 85
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Nursery (Str) · 7f
#12
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Sandown | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 1 | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-14 | Salisbury | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -29.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 24/07/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 22% | -0.49 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |