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3

The Bookkeeper

2yo Colt · 9-7 · OR 83

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Nursery (Str) · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

12%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won a small-field novice at Haydock (7f, good to soft) in May and has shown better form in defeat since, notably his third of 18 in 7f Glorious Goodwood nursery. Creditable sixth in a valuable sales race at York last time considering the drop back to 6f didn't suit. Considered back at 7f.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength81%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Salisbury 14/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 5f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS14/0533 @ Haydock 22/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 6f212y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS22/0532 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 6f3y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS5/0622 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 81 · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 81 par30/072OR 812 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 82 · 6f GS 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 82 par20/082OR 82projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20York26th4th+2
2026-07-30Goodwood23rd1st+2
2026-06-05Epsom Downs24th2nd+2
2026-05-22Haydock31st0th+1
2026-05-14Salisbury34th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0522/055/0630/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +15.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/05/20264th10/147%40%-0.07
22/05/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
05/06/20264th12/137%75%+0.38
30/07/20263rd3/184%88%+0.04
20/08/20266th80/10%74%+0.74