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8

Theheatison

2yo Colt · 9-1 · OR 77

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Nursery (Str) · 7f

#13

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Novice winner at Bath in July and has shown better form in defeat since, including second in a big-field nursery at the York Ebor meeting (7f, soft). Found a step up to listed company too much at Haydock last time but this is more realistic.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.1
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Lingfield 18/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS18/0533 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 6f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS14/0635 @ Bath 01/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 5f160y Fm 1291/0754 @ Windsor 20/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 73 · 6f12y GF 130 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 73 par20/074OR 734 @ Newmarket 08/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 71 · 7f GF 121 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 71 par8/084OR 712 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 72 · 7f GS 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 72 par20/082OR 721 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 75 · 7f212y Hvy 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 75 par5/091OR 75projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock15th1st+3
2026-08-20York22nd0th+2
2026-08-08Newmarket43rd3rd0
2026-07-20Windsor44th4th0
2026-07-01Bath51st2nd−1
2026-06-14Salisbury35th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0520/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength41%

Delivery trend +2.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/05/20265th22/10%20%+0.20
14/06/20265th33/10%60%+0.60
01/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
20/07/20264th11/271%40%-0.31
08/08/20263rd33/10%67%+0.67
20/08/20262nd50/10%94%+0.94
05/09/20265th20/10%0%0.00