5
Apulia Bay
2yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 92
Newbury · Haynes Hanson & Clark Conditions Stakes (Str) · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Nottingham | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-28 | Beverley | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Lingfield | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength60%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 1/6 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |