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6

Flying Pirate

2yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 91

Newbury · Haynes Hanson & Clark Conditions Stakes (Str) · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful effort when making it 2 from 3 in novices with a wide-margin defeat of 6 rivals over 7f at Haydock (good to soft) in first-time cheekpieces 15 days ago. Still quite flighty in the preliminaries at Haydock but could be more to come if his quirks can be kept in check.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength7%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 1.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 6f Sft 1309/0652 @ Salisbury 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 6f Goo 13430/0624 @ Haydock 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 85 · 6f212y Sft 134 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 85 par3/094OR 85projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Haydock41st3rd−2
2026-06-30Salisbury23rd3rd0
2026-06-09Salisbury51st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0630/063/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength55%

Delivery trend -7.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
30/06/20263rd9/488%80%-0.08
03/09/20261st5/493%100%+0.07