9
All Moonshine
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 93
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes (Listed) (Str) · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
31%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Newbury | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 15th | 16th | −1 |
| 2026-02-11 | Kempton | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-01-12 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-12-28 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 78% | +0.36 |
| 28/12/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 12/01/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 17/06/2026 | 15th | 16/1 | 16% | 39% | +0.23 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |