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Elarak

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 105

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes (Listed) (Str) · 7f

#7

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A 3-time winner in 2025. Yet to score this season but has progressed again, runner-up in Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot (7f) in June and in 7-runner listed event at Newmarket (6f, good) last time. Holds very good form claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength9%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newmarket 21/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 1m GF 13621/0641 @ Newmarket 10/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 98 · 1m GF 131 · below its mark10/07/2025 · OR 98 par2 @ Newmarket 15/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 98 · 1m GF 135 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 98 par15/082OR 982 @ Newmarket 27/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 96 · 7f GF 132 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 96 par3 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 103 · 7f Gd 134 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 103 par10/043OR 1032 @ Newmarket 01/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 103 · 7f GF 138 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 103 par2 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 28 · OR 103 · 7f GF 136 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 103 par18/062OR 1032 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 103 · 7f GF 138 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 103 par1 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 105 · 6f Gd 129 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 105 par22/081OR 105projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Newmarket12nd2nd0
2026-07-11Newmarket23rd4th−1
2026-06-18Royal Ascot22nd3rd−1
2026-05-01Newmarket24th5th−1
2026-04-10Thirsk34th7th−2
2025-09-27Newmarket21st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0627/0918/0622/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength93%

Delivery trend +3.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/06/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
10/07/20257th11/142%0%-0.42
15/08/20256th7/282%29%-0.53
27/09/20251st18/15%100%+0.95
10/04/20264th6/168%57%-0.11
01/05/20264th11/893%40%-0.53
18/06/20262nd12/137%96%+0.59
11/07/20263rd13/266%83%+0.18
22/08/20262nd4/179%83%+0.04