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10

Leading Dancer

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 92

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes (Listed) (Str) · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

69%

Place Prob

55%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Starman filly who looked a good prospect in 2025 when going 2-3 in listed race over C&D (heavy) in October. This is no easy ask after 10 months off but she remains with plenty of potential.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength18%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 1.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 12812/0923 @ Newcastle 28/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 7f14y Std 12828/0931 @ Newbury 25/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 7f Sft 12825/101projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-10-25Newbury11st1st0
2025-09-28Newcastle31st4th−2
2025-09-12Doncaster23rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0928/0925/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength8%

Delivery trend -34.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/09/20253rd20/10%78%+0.78
28/09/20251st8/1597%100%+0.03
25/10/20251st13/891%100%+0.09