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3

Myal

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 106

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes (Listed) (Str) · 7f

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful gelding who bagged 7f Thirsk conditions event in April. Posted a very good second in Haydock listed race (7f) in May but not at his best both runs since, beating one in Park Stakes at Doncaster (7f, good) 6 days ago. Needs to bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 27 · OR 100 · 7f GF 133 · beat its mark19/06/2025 · OR 100 par19/062OR 1002 @ Newmarket 12/07/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 100 · 7f GF 136 · below its mark12/07/2025 · OR 100 par2 @ York 21/08/2025 · Pos 16th of 17 · OR 99 · 7f192y Goo 137 · below its mark21/08/2025 · OR 99 par21/082OR 991 @ Redcar 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 97 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 97 par1 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 104 · 6f2y Goo 136 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 104 par28/031OR 1043 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 103 · 7f Gd 134 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 103 par1 @ Haydock 09/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 107 · 6f212y Gd 136 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 107 par9/051OR 1071 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 107 · 7f1y Goo 133 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 107 par1 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 107 · 7f6y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 107 par12/091OR 107projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Doncaster17th7th+0
2026-07-11Chester17th7th0
2026-05-09Haydock12nd2nd0
2026-04-10Thirsk31st4th−2
2026-03-28Doncaster15th5th0
2025-10-04Redcar12nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/064/109/0512/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength14%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/06/20254th18/15%88%+0.83
12/07/202511th8/158%9%-0.49
21/08/202516th33/10%6%+0.06
04/10/20252nd12/137%88%+0.51
28/03/20265th18/15%64%+0.58
10/04/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
09/05/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
11/07/20267th11/271%25%-0.46
12/09/20267th66/10%14%+0.14