Northern Champion
3yo Colt · 9-4 · OR 106
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes (Listed) (Str) · 7f
#10
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 6.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Newbury | 1 | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 22th | 23th | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Meydan | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Meydan | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 04/10/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 47% | +0.05 |
| 02/01/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 06/02/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 28/03/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 19/06/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 01/08/2026 | 22nd | 40/1 | 0% | 19% | +0.19 |
| 15/08/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |