6
Whip Cracker
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 100
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes (Listed) (Str) · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Chester | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chester | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | BHA95 | 11th | 21th | −9 |
| 2025-10-10 | York | 2 | 13th | 14th | −1 |
| 2025-09-17 | Yarmouth | 3 | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 18/06/2025 | 26th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 02/08/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 93% | +0.38 |
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 10/10/2025 | 13th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 15/03/2026 | 11th | 13/2 | 66% | 58% | -0.07 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |