4
Aphrodite Spirit
4yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 77
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newbury | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Newbury | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-08 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-17 | Chepstow | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-06-06 | Goodwood | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 17/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 08/09/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |