11
Autumn's Breeze
5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 68
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Newbury | 5 | −1 | ||
| 2026-05-01 | Goodwood | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Newbury | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Newbury | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Goodwood | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Lingfield | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2024 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 21/05/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 25/06/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 09/08/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 23/08/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 19/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |
| 24/10/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |
| 01/05/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 11% | -0.31 |