Counter Intuitive
3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 81
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Salisbury | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newmarket | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Salisbury | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-05 | Kempton | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -14.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 42% | -0.14 |
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 13/08/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |