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Gloryous

4yo Filly · 9-13 · OR 82

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Resumed winning ways at Kempton (1½m) in August and backed it up with a solid second of 6 in seller at Goodwood (11f, soft) 19 days ago. Needs considering.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newmarket 08/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 74 · 1m2f Goo 140 · below its mark08/08/2025 · OR 74 par8/085OR 744 @ Newbury 19/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 83 · 1m2f Goo 133 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 83 par4 @ Salisbury 02/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 82 · 1m1f201y Gd 135 · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 82 par2/104OR 824 @ Newbury 24/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 84 · 1m2f Sft 135 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 84 par4 @ Kempton 29/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 83 · 1m2f219y Sta 133 · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 83 par29/064OR 834 @ Salisbury 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 82 · 1m1f201y GF 142 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 82 par3 @ Salisbury 13/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 80 · 1m4f5y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 80 par13/083OR 804 @ Kempton 26/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 80 · 1m3f219y Sta 142 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ Goodwood 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 80 · 1m3f44y Sft 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 80 par30/083OR 80projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Goodwood32nd1st+1
2026-08-26Kempton41st1st0
2026-08-13Salisbury32nd1st+1
2026-07-11Salisbury43rd3rd0
2026-06-29Kempton48th8th0
2025-10-24Newbury46th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0824/1013/0830/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength44%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/08/20258th4/179%13%-0.66
19/09/20253rd25/10%82%+0.82
02/10/20252nd5/174%80%+0.06
24/10/20256th22/10%55%+0.55
29/06/20268th66/10%36%+0.36
11/07/20263rd6/168%50%-0.18
13/08/20262nd14/126%83%+0.57
26/08/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
30/08/20262nd7/491%80%-0.11