IvyArcIvyArc
9

Hello Friend

3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 79

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Frankel filly made the frame in novices on her first 3 starts before taking a step forward on her handicap debut when beaten a nose in 5-runner event at Newmarket (1¾m, good) last month. Well in the mix with further progress on the cards.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength65%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 1m4f98y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS19/0533 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 1m4f8y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS16/0633 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 1m4f14y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS27/0733 @ Newmarket 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 78 · 1m6f GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 78 par15/083OR 78projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Newmarket32nd1st+1
2026-07-27Southwell34th3rd+1
2026-06-16Thirsk32nd1st+1
2026-05-19Newcastle32nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0516/0627/0715/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength85%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/05/20262nd13/266%80%+0.14
16/06/20262nd6/492%75%-0.17
27/07/20264th10/147%77%+0.30
15/08/20262nd13/266%75%+0.09