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10

Littlecote

3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 75

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

67%

Place Prob

43%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Camelot filly who ended a run of 3 second placings with success in 6-runner novice at Newcastle (1½m) in May. Off since but she remains with potential now going handicapping.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Nottingham 02/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m75y Goo 1282/1043 @ Southwell 28/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 1m4f14y Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS28/0333 @ Kempton 08/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 1m2f219y Sta 122 · HIGHER CLASS8/0433 @ Wolverhampton 27/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 75 · 1m4f51y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 75 par27/043OR 753 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 75 · 1m4f98y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 75 par19/053OR 75projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-19Newcastle31st0th+1
2026-04-27Wolverhampton32nd1st+1
2026-04-08Kempton32nd1st+1
2026-03-28Southwell32nd1st+1
2025-10-02Nottingham45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1028/038/0427/0419/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength66%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/10/20255th33/10%33%+0.33
28/03/20262nd13/891%80%-0.11
08/04/20262nd10/147%80%+0.33
27/04/20262nd8/1597%86%-0.11
19/05/20261st5/696%100%+0.04