Miss Tonnerre
4yo Filly · 9-13 · OR 82
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Kempton | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2025-11-19 | Kempton | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-17 | Yarmouth | 1 | 10th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-09-06 | Ascot | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-07-05 | Sandown | 1 | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2024 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 21/10/2024 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 14/05/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 05/07/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 06/09/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |
| 17/09/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 19/11/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 27/05/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |