5
Nightsinwhitesatin
4yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 77
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f
#10
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Hamilton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Catterick | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chester | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Thirsk | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |
| 28/10/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 91% | +0.07 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 79% | -0.07 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |