1
Redbud Sixteen
4yo Filly · 10-2 · OR 85
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Salisbury | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Salisbury | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kempton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
Delivery trend -7.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 29/08/2025 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 23/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 06/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 03/07/2026 | 7th | 7/4 | 91% | 14% | -0.77 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |