9
Gemmari
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 73
Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 1) · 1m 2f
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Ascot | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 24/02/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 15/03/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 29/10/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 27/11/2025 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 02/01/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 03/03/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 14% | -0.75 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 33% | -0.22 |
| 08/05/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 9% | +0.04 |