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5

Loz Vegas

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 83

Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 1) · 1m 2f

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful 1m winner at 2yrs. Similar form in handicaps this summer (fourth at Ascot) before suffering a poor run when eleventh of 14 in handicap at Goodwood (1¼m, good to firm) in July. Not without interest off a 2 lb lower mark here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength84%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ascot 12/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 7f GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS12/0724 @ Sandown 07/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 1m Goo 1332 @ Newbury 19/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS19/0921 @ Newmarket 11/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 92 · 1m2f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 92 par3 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 90 · 1m Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 90 par16/053OR 903 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 88 · 1m Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 88 par3 @ Ascot 10/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 87 · 7f213y GF 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 87 par10/073OR 872 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 85 · 1m1f197y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 85 par30/072OR 85projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Goodwood211th9th+2
2026-07-10Ascot34th3rd+1
2026-06-19Newmarket35th4th+1
2026-05-16Newbury36th5th+1
2025-10-11Newmarket18th4th+3
2025-09-19Newbury25th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0711/1010/0730/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength49%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/07/202512th80/10%15%+0.15
07/08/20252nd40/10%67%+0.67
19/09/20255th25/10%33%+0.33
11/10/20258th50/10%0%0.00
16/05/20266th11/142%44%+0.02
19/06/20265th25/10%67%+0.67
10/07/20264th14/126%70%+0.44
30/07/202611th11/142%23%-0.19