10
Raintown
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 67
Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 1) · 1m 2f
#1
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
74%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength37%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Ffos Las | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Newbury | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Newbury | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newbury | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Bath | 6 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 29/01/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |