3
River Card
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 86
Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 1) · 1m 2f
#7
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Newbury | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2025-09-06 | Ascot | 2 | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-08-14 | Deauville | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength83%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 04/10/2025 | 11th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |