3
Almekarem
4yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 81
Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 0y
#5
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Salisbury | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Newmarket | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-18 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 3086% of fieldRange 1-22 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 30. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 05/12/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 18/12/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 14% | -0.41 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 11/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |