27
Crimson Road
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 70
Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 0y
#4
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Brighton | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-09 | Chepstow | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Chepstow | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nottingham | 6 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-07 | Windsor | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Bath | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 3097% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength93%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 30. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 30/10/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 08/12/2025 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 05/04/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 07/05/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 63% | +0.07 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |