22
Double Red
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 73
Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 0y
#18
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#18
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Chepstow | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Salisbury | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Leicester | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Lingfield | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish24th of 3021% of fieldRange 24-30 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 24th of 30. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 02/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 20/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/05/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 31/08/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |