16
Empirical
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 82
Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 0y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Newbury | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Nottingham | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-28 | Kempton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 30100% of fieldRange 1-19 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 30. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 27/12/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 28/01/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |