Interstate
3yo Colt · 9-7 · OR 83
Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 0y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sandown | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Doncaster | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Kempton | 5 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 30. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 18% | -0.24 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |