21
Kalokalo
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 78
Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 0y
#8
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Goodwood | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Windsor | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Nottingham | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Windsor | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newbury | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 3079% of fieldRange 1-17 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength72%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 30. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 85% | +0.37 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 30/07/2026 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |