Loz Vegas
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 83
Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 0y
#27
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#27
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 6.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Goodwood | 2 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ascot | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Newmarket | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newbury | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Newmarket | 1 | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-09-19 | Newbury | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 26th of 30. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 12th | 80/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 07/08/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 19/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/10/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 44% | +0.02 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 30/07/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 23% | -0.19 |