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Lucky Luna

3yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 74

Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 0y

#24

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#24

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 23/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 12823/0544 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 7f1y Gd 12830/0544 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 6f213y Sft 1259/0644 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 74 · 7f14y Std 124 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 74 par27/074OR 745 @ Wolverhampton 01/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 73 · 1m1f105y Std 133 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 73 par1/095OR 73projClass-projected finish: 12th of 30
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Wolverhampton52nd3rd−1
2026-07-27Southwell46th6th0
2026-06-09Salisbury41st1st0
2026-05-30Chester46th6th0
2026-05-23Salisbury44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0530/059/0627/071/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 3059% of fieldRange 1-20 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +10.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 30. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/20264th6/168%73%+0.04
30/05/20266th3/184%50%-0.34
09/06/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
27/07/20266th18/15%55%+0.49
01/09/20262nd13/266%80%+0.14