14
Mythical Bird
4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 77
Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 0y
#21
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#21
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Bath | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Salisbury | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Windsor | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newbury | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Sandown | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Leicester | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish20th of 3034% of fieldRange 1-30 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength51%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 20th of 30.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 30/10/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 30/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 12/06/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 09/07/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 12/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |