Narragansett
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 71
Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 0y
#19
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#19
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | Chepstow | 2 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-09-11 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-04-03 | Plumpton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-03-08 | Sandown | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-02-10 | Plumpton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-01-23 | Wetherby | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 23rd of 30. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2024 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 06/11/2024 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 05/12/2024 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 23/01/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 10/02/2025 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 08/03/2025 | 1st | 85/40 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 03/04/2025 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |
| 11/09/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |