13
Perfect Scoundrel
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 77
Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 0y
#10
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Newbury | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Goodwood | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newbury | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Lingfield | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 3076% of fieldRange 1-24 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 30. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 02/09/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 17/09/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 63% | +0.57 |
| 20/04/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 90% | +0.48 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |