Tambora
3yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 84
Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 0y
#7
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Sandown | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Sandown | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newbury | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Newbury | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -15.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 30. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 79% | +0.53 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |