10

Tambora

3yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 84

Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 0y

#7

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength32%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 20/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 7f GS 13020/0944 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 25 · OR - · 1m Goo 13318/0443 @ Newbury 15/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m2f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS15/0534 @ Sandown 12/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m1f209y Gd 133 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 78 par12/064OR 784 @ Sandown 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 78 · 1m1f209y Goo 133 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 78 par4/074OR 78projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 30
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Sandown41st1st0
2026-06-12Sandown44th4th0
2026-05-15Newbury36th5th+1
2026-04-18Newbury46th6th0
2025-09-20Newbury45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0918/0415/0512/064/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 3072% of fieldRange 4-26 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength51%

Delivery trend -15.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 30. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/20255th28/10%67%+0.67
18/04/20266th14/126%79%+0.53
15/05/20266th17/255%50%-0.05
12/06/20264th4/179%73%-0.06
04/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18