IvyArcIvyArc
3

Dark Whisper

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 85

Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · 1m 2f

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got off the mark at the third attempt in 1m Ffos Las maiden in June but proved a disappointment on his handicap bow when beating only 2 at Goodwood (1¼m, good to firm) following month. Not written off after a break.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS16/0424 @ Nottingham 31/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 1m75y Goo 13031/0544 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 13230/0642 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 87 · 1m1f197y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 87 par30/072OR 87projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Goodwood212th10th+2
2026-06-30Ffos Las41st1st0
2026-05-31Nottingham43rd3rd0
2026-04-16Newmarket22nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0431/0530/0630/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength12%

Delivery trend -19.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/04/20262nd33/10%89%+0.89
31/05/20263rd5/287%67%-0.20
30/06/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
30/07/202612th25/10%15%+0.15