9
Lucky Luna
3yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 74
Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · 1m 2f
#8
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Salisbury | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Chester | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 55% | +0.49 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |