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Military Air

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 77

Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · 1m 2f

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful performer up to 1½m for H-F. Devin in France. However, little promise in 4 starts for David O'Meara this season, again failing to beat a rival in handicap at Doncaster (1¼m, good to firm) in July. Needs this yard switch to spark major progress.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 3 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.1
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 3

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Saint-Cloud 11/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 1m1f207y Hvy 12511/03C5C5 @ Saint-Cloud 04/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 1m2f96y GS 125C1 @ ParisLongchamp 27/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 1m3f204y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS27/04C1C5 @ Vichy 23/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 1m3f204y Hvy 125C1 @ Deauville 20/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m4f94y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS20/10C12 @ Pontefract 21/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 95 · 1m2f5y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 95 par3 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 92 · 1m5f16y Gd 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 92 par17/053OR 924 @ Catterick 11/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 87 · 1m5f192y GS 137 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 87 par4 @ Doncaster 03/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 82 · 1m2f43y GF 139 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 82 par3/074OR 82projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-03Doncaster48th8th0
2026-06-11Catterick45th5th0
2026-05-17Hamilton312th11th+1
2026-04-21Pontefract26th4th+2
2025-10-20Deauville?10th6th+3
2025-09-23Vichy?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0323/0917/053/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 8-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend +1.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/03/20252nd4/179%83%+0.04
04/04/20253rd11/271%50%-0.21
27/04/20253rd5/174%60%-0.14
23/09/20253rd10/1195%60%-0.35
20/10/202510th18/15%0%-0.05
21/04/20266th8/158%29%-0.29
17/05/202612th40/10%0%0.00
11/06/20265th28/10%0%0.00
03/07/20268th40/10%0%0.00