Sweet Reward
9yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 86
Newbury · Fitzdares Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · 1m 2f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Sandown | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lingfield | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Lingfield | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 13/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/10/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 85/40 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/06/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.14 |
| 01/08/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 31/08/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |